Life is Getting Better: Why Don’t We Believe it?

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© 2024 Max More
548 Market Avenue PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104

Based on nearly all respectable measures the current is best than the previous. It’s seemingly that the longer term can be higher than the current. Most individuals imagine the other. The mass media promotes this false reverse. The long-established label for this view is reactionary.

The widespread conviction that issues are getting worse presents a serious impediment to the progress and success of life extension and biostasis. If life is getting worse, the longer term through which we hope to dwell or to wake from biostasis can be a horrible place, maybe nightmarish and apocalyptic. Why would you wish to take a journey into such a world?

Excessively and misguidedly unfavorable views of the current and future produce other dangerous results. Overly gloomy views can spur ill-considered and panicky reactions each individually and on the stage of coverage. These may be costly and draw assets from extra deserving areas. These insurance policies can even have dangerous unintended effects, equivalent to when concern of nuclear energy led to extra soiled vitality sources after which to costly and unreliable sources. Unreasonable gloom appears to be feeding an enormous rise in despair, particularly in younger folks.

My curiosity in countering gloom and doom is easy. I need humanity to flourish. I need each particular person to have an opportunity to dwell for much longer and higher. Personally, I wish to dwell longer and higher. Falsely pessimistic beliefs concerning the future will scale back my possibilities and yours. I’m way more involved about passive/fatalistic pessimism than an evaluation-based pessimism that leaves open the objection of corrective motion.

The extra uninformed an individual is about actual traits, the extra pessimistic they’re concerning the future.

Simply how unfavorable are folks’s beliefs about progress? I’ll present that individuals’s beliefs about the previous few a long time are extremely unfavorable; they’re incorrect; and the extra uninformed an individual is about actual traits, the extra pessimistic they’re concerning the future. Regardless of this final level, disturbingly there may be proof that these with extra formal schooling do no higher in monitoring of actuality in vital respects than the much less formally educated. As Hans Rosling wrote on p.9 of his extremely really helpful ebook Factfulness: “A few of these teams are even worse than most people”

Actual issues

A well-liked parody of views like mine is to lyingly assert that I’m a Dr. Pangloss, a unmitigated optimist who believes that, someway, all the pieces simply works out and nothing could possibly be higher than it’s proper now. (I’ll put aside the clear stress between “issues will get higher” and “that is one of the best of all doable worlds.”)

Issues clearly don’t “work out” on a regular basis. Loads of horrible issues occur and are nonetheless taking place – at the same time as, general, issues have been getting higher. The long-term pattern for violence is down however nonetheless we see the mass deaths from Stalin and Hitler and China. In actual fact, one signal of cultural decay is that such mass deaths are sometimes seen as a good factor – one thing that reduces human numbers, human results on the setting, and consumption. As Rosling put it, issues may be dangerous whereas additionally getting higher.

Issues get higher as a result of we imagine they will and as a result of we then work to make them higher.

Some folks appear to imagine that if we imagine issues are typically getting higher that we’ll slack off on making issues higher. They confuse a passive optimism with lively optimism. Quite the opposite, issues get higher as a result of we imagine they will and as a result of we then work to make them higher. If we’re satisfied that the world and its course is in opposition to us, we’ll are more likely to be discouraged from efforts at betterment.

Regardless of all of the measures by which the world (or most of it) enhance over time, I’m involved about traits in beliefs and insurance policies. I’m involved about rising concern, regulation, degrowth, anti-capitalism, unreliable vitality, and safetyism, and demographic decline resulting in stagnation, an innovation famine, plummeting inhabitants, and the decline of a really scientific mindset.

There are cheap questions on how a lot we are able to obtain constructive outcomes with out negatives – not progress and air pollution as a result of they don’t seem to be completely tied collectively, however materials abundance and human laziness and abuse of free time.

These philosophical, cultural, ideological, and political traits imply that continued progress is just not inevitable. Nothing on this or different essays is supposed to counsel that progress simply occurs. I’m opposing false gloom exactly as a result of progress is just not inevitable (why would I care in any other case?) and definitely may be slowed down drastically.

Previous Golden Ages and Future Ash Ages

Within the minds of many, our lives and the world are getting worse and this may proceed, in order that the longer term can be worse nonetheless. This suggests that the previous should have been higher. Certainly, many cultures embody myths of idyllic days of yore. In Western tradition, the Arcadian fable conveyed the thought of a previous age of pastoralism and concord with nature. The Backyard of Eden embodies some components of the identical thought.

This idea additionally knowledgeable Renaissance mythology. The Golden Age thought equally noticed people and the world as being corrupted by civilization, manufacturing, and rationality (particularly within the late 18th to mid-Nineteenth century Romantic model through which the previous and nature are glorified). The Golden Age as present in Greek mythology describes the decline of the state of peoples although 5 ages, from Gold to Silver to Bronze and on to the Heroic and Iron ages.

The legendary Golden Age was a time of primordial peace, concord, stability, and prosperity the place perpetually youthful folks had no want of labor to feed themselves. In South Asia, associated ideas seem in Vedic or historic Hindu tradition  which noticed historical past as cyclical, with just one age (Satya Yuga) being the Golden Age. Associated concepts seem within the historic Center East and all through the traditional world.

We have now been used to listening to about “the nice previous days”. Right this moment, we’re extra seemingly to listen to this within the type of: “We’re destroying the planet and ourselves.”

If the previous was golden, the longer term is ash. Common narratives of the longer term revolve round violence, hunger, destruction, devastation, hopelessness, slavery, conquerors, mud, and radiation. Let’s put aside novels and TV exhibits and simply contemplate the flicks.

The Nineteen Fifties by the Seventies introduced us motion pictures equivalent to The Day the World Ended (1955), On the Seaside (1959), The Day the Earth Caught Fireplace (1961), Dr. Strangelove (1964), Planet of the Apes (1968) – adopted by many extra, together with Planet of the Apes (2001), and Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011), The Omega Man (1971), The Andromeda Pressure (1971), and Evening of the Dwelling Useless (1968) and Daybreak of the Useless (1978), Holocaust 2000/The Chosen (1977), Mad Max (1979) – adopted by Mad Max 2 (1981), Mad Max: Past Thunderdome (1985), Mad Max: Fury Street (2015), Soylent Inexperienced (1973), Zardoz (1974), Logan’s Run, (1976), and Damnation Alley (1977).

The Eighties and ‘90s thrilled us with Bladerunner (1982), The Day After (1983), When the Wind Blows (1986), The Terminator (1984), Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991) and the sequels, 12 Monkeys (1995), Day of the Useless (1985) and its sequels and remakes and all the opposite zombie motion pictures, Waterworld (1995), and The Matrix (1999) and its sequels.

The brand new millennium didn’t change our style for apocalypse and catastrophe. We had been handled to: World Struggle Z (2013), 28 Days Later (2002), 28 Weeks Later (2007), The Street (2009), Kids of Males (2006), The Island (2005), Snowpiercer (2013), The Day After Tomorrow (2004), Equilibrium, (2002), The Ebook of Eli (2010), Geostorm (2017), Cargo (2017), The way it Ends (2018), Mortal Engines (2018), Extinction (2018), and A Quiet Place (2018). Most lately, we have now seen Gentle of my Life (2019), I Am Mom (2019), IO (2019), Songbird (2020) – a film about Covid-23, and The Covid-19 Pandemic (2021). Oh, wait, that final one wasn’t a film, it was simply surreal.

It’s near inconceivable to search out typically constructive portrayals of the longer term. No marvel so many individuals reflexively anticipate the longer term to be a depressing place they’d somewhat not see.

Mistaken gloom

In his 2017 ebook, Progress: Ten Causes to Look Ahead to the Future, historian of concepts Johan Norberg relates the outcomes of a 2005 examine he commissioned wanting into the views of 1,000 Swedes on world growth. Swedes’ solutions to eight questions revealed that, in all ages and earnings group, they had been mistaken on all questions. 73% thought that starvation had elevated and 76% that excessive poverty had elevated. This was throughout a interval once they had each fallen sooner than ever earlier than in historical past. Disturbingly, those that had been by larger schooling knew the least concerning the progress that had been made.

Those that had been by larger schooling knew the least concerning the progress that had been made.

It’s not simply the Swedes. A YouGov ballot performed in 2015 discovered that solely 5% of Britons thought the world was getting higher whereas 71% mentioned it was getting worse. Respondents within the UK badly underestimated progress in schooling, well being, and fertility discount on the planet. Notably, the outcomes from these with college levels will not be higher than the typical outcomes. Primarily based on a number of questions, they’re worse. [Norberg, p. 206]

A few years in the past as I write this, I engaged in a debate on the Oxford Union with some extremely educated folks. After I had made the case for the desirability of prolonged longevity, together with anticipating objections primarily based on inhabitants progress, literature professor N. Katherine Hayles spoke. She reluctantly granted that it would be true that we had been polluting much less per capita however mentioned she couldn’t think about that we polluted much less in whole, together with the place she lived. If I had been given the chance to reply, I might have requested her to step exterior and look and scent the air the place she was in Los Angeles. Then go and have a look at photos of L.A. air a couple of a long time earlier.

Extra broadly, I might have identified that it isn’t remotely implausible for air pollution to fall each relative to inhabitants and in whole. The inhabitants of the USA is rising at round 0.58%. If we are able to scale back air pollution by, say, 0.75% yearly, air pollution falls completely in addition to comparatively.

In actuality, air air pollution in main cities has been falling for not less than half a century. Soot over Manhattan fell by two-thirds from the tip of WWII to the tip of the century. In Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Detroit, the typical variety of days of poor air high quality fell by round half within the interval from 1978 to 1992. In Los Angeles, the variety of days with unhealthy air high quality fell by half in a single decade, from 1985 to 1995.

Between 1980 and 2014 there was a discount of greater than two-thirds in six main air pollution: risky natural compounds, nitrogen dioxide, direct particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and lead.

Based on the US Environmental Safety Company, between 1980 and 2014 there was a discount of greater than two-thirds in six main air pollution: risky natural compounds, nitrogen dioxide, direct particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and lead. You may see related traits in the UK. The focus of smoke and sulfur dioxide elevated in London for 300 years from the late sixteenth century however then fell quickly. As Bjørn Lomborg put it, “the London air has not been cleaner than right this moment for the reason that Center Ages.” [Lomborg, 2001.]

Within the US and different rich international locations, water high quality has been bettering for many years, vastly increasing the variety of streams and lakes appropriate for fishing and swimming. The variety of oil spills has fallen dramatically – by 99% between 1970 and 2014. Deforestation in rich international locations has stopped and reversed. [Moore & Simon, 2002; Norberg, 2017.]

The Gapminder Basis has labored mightily to point out the gulf between the precise state of the world and its traits and the general public’s understanding. The Basis requested 12 primary truth questions of most people in 14 rich international locations. Respondents select between three alternate options for every query. Purely at random, monkeys may decide 4 out of 12 appropriate solutions. Alas, the rating for people was a unhappy 2.2.

Since folks do a lot worse than random likelihood, they should have inaccurate assumptions primarily based on deceptive or outdated data. Hans Rosling, professor of worldwide well being, mentioned these outcomes and the causes in his glorious ebook, Factfulness: Ten Causes We’re Mistaken In regards to the World – and Why Issues Are Higher than You Suppose.

A current survey requested, “All issues thought of, do you suppose the world is getting higher or worse, or neither getting higher nor worse?”. In Sweden 10% thought issues are getting higher, within the US there have been solely 6%, and France and Australia had been the gloomiest at 3%. Essentially the most constructive had been China at 41% and Indonesia at 23%.


The opinion analysis group Ipsos MORI performed an in depth survey of 26,489 folks throughout 28 international locations. [Jackson 2017; Our World in Data ref.1 & 2] The primary two charts present that individuals in each nation have falsely unfavorable views of modifications in world excessive poverty and in youngster mortality. 52% imagine that the share of folks in excessive poverty (< int-$1.90 per day) is rising. Actually, this share has been declining for 2 centuries. The discount in excessive poverty has accelerated within the final 20 years.

On the flip facet, the quantity of people that dwell on over 10 {dollars} per day elevated by 900 million within the final 10 years. This isn’t to say that everybody is doing simply high-quality. 730 million individuals are residing on lower than int-$1.90 per day. We will anticipate that quantity to nonetheless be round 500 million in 2030 for the reason that world’s very poorest economies are stagnating.


The identical mismatch between the truth of world progress and subjective, uninformed (or misinformed) perception exists once we contemplate youngster mortality. On common solely 39% know that the mortality of kids is falling. Within the USA, solely 26% answered appropriately, and 34% in Britain. But the info clearly present that the “youngster mortality charge in each the less- and least-developed international locations has halved within the final 20 years to three.9%”. It’s not a current pattern. That’s a 90% enchancment in comparison with two centuries in the past.

Once more, on this space, progress has accelerated. Listed below are the chances dying within the first 5 years: 1900: 36.2%. 1960: 18.5%. 1990: 9.32%. 2017: 3.9%. Loads of room for enchancment stays since practically 15,000 youngsters nonetheless die per day.


When folks had been requested “over the following 15 years, do you suppose residing circumstances for folks world wide get higher or worse?”, 35% answered “higher”, 27% “keep the identical”, and 29% “will worsen” (with 9% “have no idea”). Japan was the least hopeful (10% higher, 44% the identical, 26% worse) with France and Belgium the gloomiest (49% worse). The proportion anticipating residing circumstances to enhance was 27% in the US, 25% in Nice Britain, and 18% in Germany. Apparently, essentially the most hopeful had been all low-income or lower-middle earnings international locations one technology in the past (1990): Kenya (68%), Nigeria (67%), India (65%), China (58%), Indonesia (56%), and Peru (49%).

In 1800 there have been fewer than 100 million literate folks of that age; right this moment there are 4.6 billion.

In 1820 solely 10% of individuals older than 15 years had been literate; in 1930 it was one in three and now we’re at 86% globally. From a unique perspective, in 1800 there had been fewer than 100 million literate folks of that age; right this moment there are 4.6 billion. When requested about literacy charges right this moment, within the UK, solely 8% answered appropriately – however solely 4% of these with a college schooling! Within the US, 22% answered appropriately.

There are “softer” measures of the standard of life in societies that I can’t deal with right here. I’ll merely quote Andrew Sullivan: “within the midst of large beneficial properties for gays, ladies, and racial minorities, we nonetheless insist greater than ever that we dwell in a patriarchal, misogynist, white supremacist, homophobic period.” He additionally notes: “The extra progress we observe, the higher the remaining injustices seem.” [Sullivan 2020].

These with extra optimism about folks and the world getting higher off within the subsequent 15 years answered extra questions appropriately. Those that are pessimistic are a lot much less more likely to have a sound understanding about what is occurring on the planet.

When prior to now would you favor to dwell?

How will you make a dent in somebody’s pessimism when you could have solely a few minutes? The pessimistic reply is: “You may’t! Overlook about it.” A extra hopeful perspective seems to be for a shortcut. Right here’s what I’ve usually completed:

You might be speaking to somebody who clearly thinks the world has gotten worse and can proceed down a path of immiseration, environmental destruction, useful resource depletion, lack of freedom and dignity, and rising violence. Ask them this query: “When prior to now would you favor to dwell, in comparison with right this moment?” Assist them out somewhat. (You can customise your assist a bit to suit their intercourse and race – or their curiosity in these components.) Use clear and vivid examples. Ask them: Would you favor to dwell again when

• There have been no painkillers? What should you needed to have a tooth pulled or a leg amputated or injured your again?

• There have been no antiseptics? In the event you want surgical procedure (or what handed for surgical procedure), you’d be about as more likely to die from an infection as from the rationale for the operation.

• Girls couldn’t personal property and had no vote?

• The streets had been filled with filth, human and animal feces, and rats?

• Slavery was widespread?

• Struggle was perpetual and conscription common?

• You’ll lose most of your youngsters as infants and also you/your spouse had a excessive likelihood of dying when giving delivery?

How has the world modified because you had been born?

Right here’s a fast, straightforward, academic, and enjoyable factor to strive – and to ship to your pals, pessimist or in any other case. Go to this URL to look at “your life in numbers”:

You’ll discover a concise abstract of six vital methods through which the world has modified for the higher during the last 50 years. As an example, globally: Life expectancy has elevated from 56 to 72; toddler mortality has fallen 72%; common earnings per individual rose 372%, after adjusting for inflation; the meals provide elevated by 22%; the size of education elevated 110%; and political freedom rose by 55%.

However the enjoyable half comes once you plug in your yr and nation of delivery. Utilizing the huge database at HumanProgress.org, you’ll then see how your nation has modified because you got here into existence when it comes to the six measures above. You may additionally plug overseas for comparability. Listed below are my outcomes:


Earnings per individual between the USA and UK seems to be mistaken or not less than outdated. Financial progress has been stronger within the USA than within the UK for years and the hole has compounded.

This interactive function solely hints on the exceptional depth and breadth of knowledge obtainable on this web site. HumanProgress describes itself as “a data-driven academic web site dedicated to bettering the general public’s understanding of the state of the world.” Statistics come from dependable third-party sources. You may simply drill down into all types of measures of progress. Below “Discover Knowledge”, you will see 2259 datasets. You may as well dive into the fabric by round 40 matters. In the event you like exploring numbers on Worldometer, you will see this absorbing.

Listed below are another illustrations of world enhancements.


Little one mortality (deaths within the first 5 years of life) have fallen dramatically round the world:


International meals provide per individual has been rising for many years:


The proportion of the world inhabitants residing in excessive poverty has declined tremendously between 1820 and 2015:


See right here at Our World in Knowledge for extra.

Each time there’s a aircraft accident or near-accident, many people imagine air journey is getting extra harmful. The true pattern is strongly towards higher security:


Air air pollution stays a significant issue in some international locations however the pattern from 1700 to 2016 is down for suspended particulate matter:


The variety of oil spills annually has decreased tenfold in comparison with the Seventies. From ITOPF.


You actually wouldn’t get the impression from the information however climate-related deaths have frequently declined. Since 1920, the decline is greater than 97%.


Within the USA, catastrophic losses as a share of GDP have virtually halved within the final 40 years. This commentary is in line with a world plunge in vulnerability traits. The worldwide common mortality charge has fallen by 6.5 instances and the worldwide loss charge has fallen by virtually 5 instances between 1980-89 and 2007-16. As societies change into wealthier, mortality and vulnerability decline.

Provided that the oceans are rising by two or three millimeters per yr (with no acceleration), you would possibly fairly anticipate that we’re shedding world land space. In truth, the other is true. Between 1985 and 2015, experiences Roger Pielke, Jr., world sea ranges rose by about 60 millimeters (about 2.4 inches). This elevated world coastal land space by virtually 34,000 sq. kilometers which, as Pielke notes, is about the dimensions of Belgium.

A few of this is because of tectonic occasions equivalent to Japan’s January 4, 2024 7.6 Noto Peninsula earthquake which raised the coast and created in some locations greater than 200 meters of latest shoreline. However it’s also resulting from human exercise from damming and constructing dykes to drainage to constructing of latest land out of the ocean. This conclusion seems to be extensively shared by researchers.

Why so gloomy?

What components strengthen pessimism and unrealistically gloomy beliefs concerning the current and the longer term? It’s absolutely pointless to say the information issue. Greater than ever, the working motto of most media is: “If it bleeds, it leads.” The information sometimes presents us with a tiny collection of the worst occasions of the previous few hours. New tales seize the viewer’s consideration by upsetting concern with a “teaser”. They need the viewer to stick with them in order that they counsel that the answer for decreasing that concern can be discovered within the information story. They go away the viewer with extra despondency, not much less, and wanting extra data.

Each time we’re subjected to “the information” – whether or not within the old style type on TV, radio, or newspaper, or on-line – we’re bombarded with a concentrated beam of negativity, of violence, hatred, battle, accidents, disasters, accusations, and fears. Others have offered proof that this fiendish and entropic sign makes us extra depressed. Isn’t that shocking!

Not solely are we drowned in unfavorable tales, the pattern exhibits this drawback getting worse:


Worry and fear are instruments for survival, productions of evolution. In our tradition, the context has modified drastically. We’re bombarded by unfavorable inputs. And these are dangerous issues that we are able to normally do little or nothing about. Constructive issues sometimes occur over for much longer intervals of time than unfavorable issues. What takes years to construct may be destroyed in a second.

And even with out the media distorting our view, our personal psychology creates distortion aplenty. The provision heuristic issues how straightforward it’s to extract one thing from reminiscence. The extra memorable an incident is, the extra possible we suppose it’s. Dangerous information tends to stay within the thoughts higher and is extra simply recalled. There may be additionally “they psychology of moralizing”. Complaining and criticizing sends a sign to others that you just care about them. “Dangerous” data normally will get processed extra completely than “good” data.

Our tendency towards “declinism” – a predisposition to view the previous favorably and fear that the longer term goes to be dangerous – appears to be because of the mixture of two components: the “memory” bump and the positivity impact. The previous was recognized in research from the late Eighties and early Nineties.

Researchers confirmed that once they requested 70-year-olds to recall autobiographical reminiscences, they tended to finest keep in mind occasions that occurred to them at round the ages of 10-30. Recall dropped for occasions that occurred when the individuals had been aged between 30-60, after which elevated once more for ages nearer to 70. So, you’re extra more likely to keep in mind issues that occurred to you in late childhood or early maturity.

The positivity impact is the concept as folks become old, they have a tendency to expertise fewer unfavorable feelings, they usually’re extra more likely to keep in mind constructive issues over unfavorable issues. The mix of the memory bump and the positivity impact means that:

individuals are extra more likely to keep in mind occasions from late childhood or early maturity, and critically extra more likely to keep in mind constructive occasions from the previous. In different phrases, you keep in mind your youthful years extra favourably, which could go some technique to explaining why some folks expertise declinism. [Etchells, 2015.]

I’ve proven that most individuals imagine that life is getting worse. I’ve given or pointed to sturdy proof that this perception is mistaken. Over time, life is getting higher in quite a few vital methods. And I’ve briefly famous among the components shaping our excessively pessimistic beliefs.

In future entries, I’ll cowl the Simon-Ehrlich wager and have a look at the appalling quantity of dangerous pessimistic predictions – a file of failure from which we fail to study. I’ll additionally have a look at the notorious Limits to Progress and its equally dangerous current replace.

[An earlier version of this article appeared in Cryonics, February 2021.]

For the file: This essay attracts so much on Rosling’s Factfulness but in addition on Norvig’s ebook, and my view on these problem has been knowledgeable by quite a few different writers for the reason that Eighties, together with Julian Simon, Ronald Bailey, Indur Goklany, Bjorn Lomborg, and lately Steven Pinker

______________________________________________________________________

Listed below are some related sources in assist of Extra’s thesis.

  • Bregman, R. (2020). Humankind: A hopeful historical past. Bloomsbury Publishing.
  • Pinker, S. (2018). Enlightenment Now: The Case for Motive, Science, Humanism, and Progress. Viking.
  • Ritchie, H. (2024). Not the Finish of the World: How We Can Be the First Technology to Construct a Sustainable Planet. Little, Brown Spark.
  • Roser, M. (2018). Most of us are mistaken about how the world has modified (particularly those that are pessimistic concerning the future). Our World in Knowledge. https://ourworldindata.org/wrong-about-the-world
  • Rosling, H., Rönnlund, A. R., & Rosling, O. (2018). Factfulness: Ten Causes We’re Mistaken In regards to the World–and Why Issues Are Higher Than You Suppose. Flatiron Books.

Extra’s References

Bailey, Ronald. “Earth Day Turns 50: Half a century later, a glance again on the forecasters who acquired the longer term mistaken—and one who acquired it proper.” Motive, Could 2020.

Ebook, Joakim. “Worldviews Are Pessimistic As a result of They Are Outdated.” HumanProgress, December 19, 2019

Dinic, Milan. “Is the World Getting Higher or Worse?” YouGov, January 8, 2016.

Etchells, Pete. “Declinism: is the world really getting worse?” The Guardian, January 16, 2015.

Highlights from Ignorance survey within the UK

Ignorance Survey within the USA 2013

Goklany, Indur M. The Bettering State of the World: Why we’re residing longer, more healthy, extra snug lives on a cleaner planet. Cato Institute, 2009.

Lomborg, Bjørn. The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Actual State of the World. Cambridge College Press, 2001.

Matthews, Dylan. “23 charts and maps that present the world is getting a lot, a lot higher.” Vox, Oct 17, 2018.

Jackson, Chris. International Perceptions of Growth Progress: ‘Perils of Perceptions’ Analysis’, revealed by Ipsos MORI, 18 September 2017.

Moore, Stephen & Julian L. Simon. It’s Getting Higher All of the Time: Biggest Tendencies of the Final 100 Years. Cato Institute, 2000.

Norberg, Johan. Progress: Ten Causes to Look Ahead to the Future. Oneworld Publications, 2017.

Parker, Kim, Wealthy Morin, and Juliana Menasce Horowitz. “Trying to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts.” Pew Analysis, March 21, 2019.

Pooley, Gale L., and Marian L. Tupy. “Luck or Perception? The Simon-Ehrlich Guess Re-Examined.” Financial Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 277-280, June.

Ridley, Matt. The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, by Harper, 2010.

Rosling, Hans, with Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Ronnlund. Factfulness: Ten Causes We’re Mistaken In regards to the World – and Why Issues Are Higher Than You Suppose. Flatiron Ebook, 2018.

The Simon Abundance Index

Sullivan, Andrew. “Is There a Method to Acknowledge America’s Progress?” New York Journal, January 17, 2020.

Our World in Knowledge: Graphs and textual content utilized by permission, CC BY 4.0. https://ourworldindata.org/about

1. https://ourworldindata.org/wrong-about-the-world

2. https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts

All visualizations, information, and code produced by Our World in Knowledge are fully open entry beneath the Inventive Commons BY license. You’ve got the permission to make use of, distribute, and reproduce these in any medium, offered the supply and authors are credited.

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