An electron microscope picture exhibits a SARS-CoV-2 particle remoted within the early days of the pandemic. It has been almost a yr since omicron was first detected, and scientists say this department of the coronavirus household tree remains to be thriving.
NIAID/NIH by way of AP
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NIAID/NIH by way of AP
An electron microscope picture exhibits a SARS-CoV-2 particle remoted within the early days of the pandemic. It has been almost a yr since omicron was first detected, and scientists say this department of the coronavirus household tree remains to be thriving.
NIAID/NIH by way of AP
All through the pandemic, the virus that causes COVID-19 has been evolving quick, blindsiding the world with one variant after one other.
However the World Well being Group hasn’t given a SARS-CoV-2 variant a Greek identify in virtually a yr, a transfer that is reserved for brand spanking new variants that do or may have vital public well being impacts, corresponding to being extra transmissible or inflicting extra extreme illness.
That raises the query: Has the evolution of the virus lastly began to ebb, presumably making it extra predictable?
The reply — based on a dozen evolutionary biologists, virologists and immunologists interviewed by NPR — is not any.
“SARS-CoV-2 is continuous to evolve extraordinarily quickly,” says Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist who research the evolution of viruses on the Fred Hutchinson Most cancers Heart in Seattle. “There is no proof that the evolution is slowing down.”
As an alternative, probably the most consequential evolutionary modifications have stayed confined to the omicron household, relatively than showing in fully new variants.
Whereas alpha, beta, gamma and the opposite named variants sprouted new branches on the SARS-CoV-2 household tree, these limbs have been dwarfed by the omicron bough, which is now studded with a plethora of subvariant stems.
“The kids of omicron — so the various direct kids and cousins inside the numerous omicron household — these have displaced one another” because the dominant strains driving the pandemic, says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist on the College of Bern. “However that very same household has been dominating” by outcompeting different strains.
One variant to rule all of them
The ever-expanding omicron brood has maintained its dominance by means of what’s often known as “convergent” evolution — when entities independently develop comparable traits due to comparable environmental pressures, based on Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, who research viral genetics on the College of Chicago.
“We appear to be seeing for the primary time proof of widescale convergent evolution,” Ragonnet-Cronin says. “We’ve got what persons are calling a swarm of omicron viruses, which have completely different ancestries inside omicron, however which have the identical set of mutations.”
These mutations endow these omicron offspring with the one energy they want most proper now: the flexibility to sneak previous the immunity that folks have constructed up from getting contaminated, vaccinated, or each.
“Whenever you see convergence in evolution that is evolution’s method of claiming ‘this mutation is repeatedly getting chosen again and again as a result of it is actually useful,'” says Jesse Bloom, a computational biologist on the Fred Hutchinson Most cancers Heart in Seattle.
These mutations within the virus’s spike protein have been growing its capability to evade protecting antibodies and proceed infecting large numbers of individuals.
“This virus is getting quite a lot of lottery tickets if you’ll. And it seems to be like, with these new variants, these new mutations are just like the jackpot,” says Jeremy Kamil, an immunologist at Louisiana State College.
The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention is tracking more than a dozen omicron subvariants right now, together with BF.7, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, a few of which look like among the many most immune-evasive but.
Thankfully, the immunity individuals have constructed up from vaccination and an infection nonetheless seems to be defending most from severe sickness and demise.
However the newer extremely contagious omicron subvariants may assist drive one more surge. Additionally they give the virus many possibilities to breed, mutate and evolve much more.
A household tree nonetheless filled with surprises?
Whereas all this sounds dire, omicron’s lengthy interval of dominance is giving some scientists some hope.
The virus may, in a single comparatively optimistic state of affairs, hold evolving this manner for a very long time, drifting in additional refined evolutionary instructions just like the flu, with out sudden shifts in the way it behaves that make it extra harmful.
“The truth that we have maybe stepped out of a section [in the pandemic] the place we’re getting utterly new viruses from completely different elements of the tree sweeping in and dominating may be an indication that we’re shifting in direction of a extra form of secure future for the virus,” Hodcroft says.
However that might imply giant numbers of individuals would nonetheless catch the virus. Many would nonetheless get severely sick, die, or be left with lengthy COVID. And since the virus remains to be so new, it is not possible to know the way the virus may evolve sooner or later, consultants inform NPR.
“We are actually coping with a very novel virus right here,” says Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at Scripps Analysis. “We do not know what number of different paths this specific virus may need. We simply do not know at this stage.”
There is no option to rule out, for instance, the likelihood {that a} dramatically completely different variant may emerge but once more, maybe after simmering inside somebody with a compromised immune system that may’t drive out the virus. That lets the virus extensively work together with the human immune system and discover much more advantageous mutations.
“I assure you that there are individuals who have been persistently contaminated with delta and alpha who’ve some actually bizarre combos of mutations,” says Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist on the College of Arizona. “And I am absolutely ready for a delta-based or alpha-based omicron-like occasion the place a type of zombie viruses that is been cooking away inside somebody emerges.”
